Cliff, slope, and plateau

I’ve been researching the reader retention curve which tracks where readers typically drop off. I won’t bore you with the numbers, but I generated a big @$$ pile of research. The chart breaks down into three parts: the cliff, the slope, and the plateau.

• The Cliff: At the beginning of the story there’s a large drop of readers. This is to be expected because they are essentially going through a process of sampling. They picked up the book because of the cover and blurb, but they haven’t yet committed to it fully.
• The Slope: After the cliff you usually see a gentle slope where people are dropping off at random points, not because they hate the book, but because they drift away. They set the book down and never pick it up again. If the author sees a sharp drop off, that means something went terribly wrong.
• The Plateau: Near the end of the book readers tend to finish reading even if they actively hate it. They are willing to put in a bit of extra effort so they can tell people why the book sucks.

As I was looking at this curve, it made me think about how this might explain any sort of task I might tackle, not just reading a book. Let’s say I decide to run a marathon. I haven’t really committed yet because my decision is based on the cover art and blurb–the image of me running a marathon. But once I actually start to sample that activity, there’s a good chance I’ll drop the idea. “Oh, wow, no. That’s not for me.”

Once I get past that and I’ve truly committed to the project, the next hurdle is sustaining interest over time. It’s possible something might derail me, like sudden tendonitis, But more likely, I will drift away because something else grabs my attention and I never drift back. It’s mostly an unconscious act. The solution here is deep immersion that keeps me on task, and engagement that pulls me back to the task when I stop. That means making the task feel intrinsically satisfying as an experience, and systematically creating open loops.

Finally, as I near the end, I’m able to sustain myself with the expectation of finishing. But only if the progress bar is accurate. Stop too soon, and I lose the benefit of the anticipation. Stop much later, and it feels like the project is dragging.