Conditions not origins
Winkletter • 9 Jan 2025 •
I spent some time on YouTube yesterday to watch the L.A. fires. I’ve heard a few people ask, “Where did the fire start?” Eventually more people will ask that question. In this case, though, the origin isn’t that important. The origin will probably be a normal fire that happens every day, but the wildfires are being driven by conditions.
Dry vegetation, extreme winds, and arid weather are fueling and spreading the flames. You can gather firefighters and equipment at the front lines, but there’s not much they can do to quell the walls of flame. And this makes a good metaphor for technological change.
Sometimes a viral product doesn’t come from a single origin–a company or startup. The conditions existed for rapid adoption and that company just happened to be looking in the right direction.
This has me wondering: What conditions should I be tracking? 🤔
Comments
That scene is a good depiction of what a quant does.
This reminds me of a character in the TV show Silicon Valley who does a deep analysis of Burger King and their use of sesame seeds on their burgers. He identifies the sources of sesame seeds in global supply and ends up making an investment in Indonesian sesame seeds because of an anticipated loss of production in the 2 other countries that supply them.
This is the scene.
I think, at times, we can anticipate where trends are going. Other times we just put stuff out there and see where it lands. You’ll benefit from conditions being in your favor whether you’re aware of the conditions or not.