Estuarine mapping

An estuary is an environment where fresh-water rivers meet saltwater from the seas. This makes for complex ecosystems where water flows and salinity are constantly changing. I spent my morning trying to understand a framework Dave Snowden has been developing called Estuarine Mapping. The name refers back to this complex nature of estuaries.

When trying to understand affordances, Estuarine Mapping plots out constraints and constructors on a map depending on the energy requirement and time horizon needed for change to occur. Time is mapped on the x-axis while energy is mapped on the y-axis.

• Constraint: A factor or condition that limits, shapes, or influences choices and behaviors within the system.
• Constructor: An element or factor within a system that consistently produces a specific outcome or effect.

To change the structure of my house and layout of rooms requires a lot of energy and time, so this would be a constraint mapped in the upper-right corner of the map. To switch my lights off and on takes almost no time or effort so this is a constructor mapped in the lower-left corner.

Somewhere in the upper-right you define a line called the Counter-Factual Border. Constraints and constructors beyond this area cannot be reasonably changed. The Volatile Border in the lower-left corner can change all too easily, and may be too volatile.

Once you have these defined you can pick out constraints and constructors to change individually and set a direction of travel.

Rather than set rigid goals that are bound to fail, keep moving to the adjacent possible by picking a constraint or constructor to work on and change the energy gradient to make “sins” more expensive or make “virtue” cheap.

So, if I buy an exercise bike, this is a technological constructor, but not one that is effective on its own. The free-energy principle predicts I will use the exercise bike as a coatrack.

But if I have an exercise bike tied to a battery that powers my coffee maker (either a fixed or flexible constraint depending on how easily the cord can be moved) I will be more likely to use it each morning because it’s now tied to a ritual constructor called “morning coffee routine.” Likewise, if the exercise bike has a built in screen for participating in spin classes, I now have a relational constructor tied to the bike.

Here are all the constraints and constructors as defined by ChatGPT.

Types of Constraints

1. Rigid or Fixed Constraints: These are inflexible and unyielding, similar to a sea wall or dyke. They represent hard boundaries or limits that cannot be easily altered or moved.
2. Elastic or Flexible Constraints: These constraints can stretch or adapt to changing circumstances, similar to an elastic band. They offer some degree of flexibility and can accommodate changes up to a certain limit.
3. Tethers: Like a climbing rope, tethers are constraints that provide support and safety, snapping into place when needed. They allow a certain amount of freedom but also limit how far one can go.
4. Permeable Constraints: These constraints allow some elements to pass through while blocking others, akin to a filter or a sieve.
5. Phase Shift Constraints: These are akin to significant legal or societal changes, like Roe v. Wade or Brexit, representing processes that can produce sudden, significant shifts in the system.
6. Dark Constraints: These are analogous to dark matter in physics. Their effects are observable, but their direct causes or nature are not immediately apparent.

Types of Constructors

1. Process Constructors: These are methods or procedures that consistently produce a certain outcome. For instance, a well-established protocol in an organization that reliably generates a specific result.
2. Ritual Constructors: Similar to cultural or organizational rituals, these constructors create consistent outcomes through repetitive and symbolic actions.
3. Relational Constructors: These involve the dynamics of relationships and networks. For example, a collaborative network within an organization that consistently fosters innovation and problem-solving.
4. Resource-Based Constructors: These are centered around the utilization of resources in a way that consistently generates desired outcomes, like a supply chain system ensuring steady material flow.
5. Conceptual Constructors: These involve ideas or concepts that guide actions and decisions in a consistent manner, such as a guiding philosophy or a set of core values in an organization.
6. Technological Constructors: Systems or tools that consistently produce certain outputs or facilitate specific processes, like a software system used for project management.