Learning from the doomers

I’m developing a theory. When I look at big shifts in society like the dotcom bubble and now the AI-apocalypse, the companies that survive the initial bubble are the ones that solve the downsides. Some people see the downsides, decide, “not for me,” and they walk away. Others see the upsides, jump into action, and run headlong into a wall. At a time like this I need to be aware of both the ups and the downs. I need to mix exuberance with temperance. Belief with doubt.

In other words, I should learn from the AI-doomers. They will teach me the problems that need to be fixed. For the doomers, those problems are reasons to ignore AI. For me, the problems are barriers to making AI work.

PayPal didn’t survive the dotcom bubble by providing banking services online. They survived by building a system to combat the fraud that was devouring them from the heels up. Anyone who tried to compete with them had to deal with the same problem of automated fraud. PayPal survived because they built a monitoring system that worked.

What’s the problem I’m focused on? Learning. The doomers say AI will give us all brain rot. And they say people everywhere are going to lose their jobs. I look at those two predictions and here’s what I see.

• People will need to learn new skills.
• People can’t learn new skills if they use AI naively.

That gives me a focus: learn how to use AI effectively for learning. Use AI to fight the brain rot.