Be an idiot without a plan

I saw this quote on my social feeds one day:

“An idiot with a plan can beat a genius without a plan.”

It all sounds pretty reasonable and logical. Being prepared is probably more important than being smart, therefore planning is important. Hence, an idiot with a plan. No one would usually refute that.

But I’m learning that in when it comes to luck and chance, the opposite might be true. In chance-driven environments like entrepreneurship and investing, an idiot without a plan can beat a genius with a plan.

Why? Because anytime you have a plan, it usually means you’re trying to forecast the future. You’re trying to predict how things will work out, how it should work out based on past precedence, data or observation. But reality might not follow any pattern. Black swan events can happen. And all the more likely in chance-driven environments.

Everyone thought that all swans were white until they saw one in black. Just a single case renders the past law obsolete. Just one.

Everyone thought the crypto coin LUNA is going to keep going up. Until it crashed to almost nothing now, making paupers out of millionaires.

In Nassim Taleb’s book Antifragile, a turkey thought since he had a good, secure and safe life for 364 days of the year, he will likely have the same life for many more years to come. Until Thanksgiving came along.

Anytime you try to predict anything in a chance-dominant environment, you’re likely worse off doing so than just being an idiot without a plan, responding to what pops up opportunistically.

Yet that’s not what school teaches you. You’re conditioned to prepare all your life for the final exam. That’s not what business school teaches aspiring entrepreneurs. You write a business plan, come up with strategy, resource your company to execute to the dot.

All trying to be a genius with a plan.

No more that for me. I’m going the other now, thank you very much.

Be an idiot without a plan.