Small bet mindset

jasonleow  •  26 Dec 2022   •    

I wrote before about how my Plugins For Carrd project has surpassed Lifelog and all other projects. I observed how I’m spending a lot more time making new plugins, doing customer support, answering questions, being everywhere. I can feel my focus moving into the project more and more, like it’s my main project in practice. It’s pulling me forward. There’s good demand. People give good feedback on my products. Above all, I enjoy working on it.

Yet I say: No more main projects. All projects are side projects. All are small bets, even if they get big.

Am I being a hypocrite? Or in denial?

Nope. Because small bet mindset is about having a healthy skeptical perspective while grounded in reality.

I might be spending more time there for now, but deep down, I still recognise it for what it is:

  • It’s still linked to a platform. And there will always be platform risk.
  • It’s still a single project, so a single point of failure.
  • It’s shown potential at a scale of a small indie side project, but to grow it beyond? To thousands or tens of thousands of dollars of revenue per month? Very hard to say. There’s no precedent. Nobody’s really tried.
  • Competitors are entering the market. Things will get harder, the business might get tougher to grow.

Hence, my point: I’m having no illusions about this being the One True project.

If it gets there, great, If not, no biggie. I’m still going to be diversifying my portfolio of small bets. Even though I have 3-4 active projects on hand now, I still think I’m not sufficiently diversified yet. I’m already thinking of new projects to work on in 2023.

Small bet mindset is about being a healthy, realist skeptic.

If there’s any hard truths I learned this year, that would be this small bet mindset.